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November 26

Fwd: Desperately Seeking Sugar Daddies

With Wall Street crashing, it's hard to be a gold digger these days. So what are the lovely ladies accustomed to bottle service at Bijoux, $500 dinners at Bouley and $8,000 shopping sprees at Bergdorf to do when the bankers who fueled their excess are suddenly out of work? Joshua David Stein finds out.

The white marble bar of the Meatpacking District hot spot Bistro Bagatelle is littered with $500 Louis Vuitton knockoff clutches—fakes, but nice fakes. Hovering over them are the anxious blonde women (fakes, but nice fakes too) to whom the bags belong. These are Manhattan's gold diggers—ladies of little means and big ambitions, who hope to use their looks to nab a rich man, better highlights and perhaps even a real Vuitton clutch. This bar is their mine. But in the middle of the worst financial crisis the city has faced since the Great Depression, there's little gold in "them thar hills."

The only thing missing on this Tuesday night in October is bankers. There are no scotches or whiskeys or hairy wrists wearing expensive watches resting on the bar. The few gents there are at Bagatelle are seated together, speaking in low, somber tones over plates of coquilles St. Jacques and bottles of Médoc. Three young Bulgarian women at the bar are getting restless. Sophie—23, blonde and a real estate broker—wears a cream cashmere sweater with a neckline that plunges like the Dow. Her friend Emilaya, 23, is a student at CUNY who resembles Scarlett Johansson. Their third friend, another beautiful Bulgarian, doesn't speak English. It doesn't matter. Three single Slavs, and still no one has approached them. Sophie sighs and sips her Pinot gris. "It's getting harder and harder to find a good man," she says. "Everyone is looking for handsome, rich and charming men but there are less and less of them to go around." Since the financial markets started collapsing back in March, wealthy Prince Charmings, already an endangered species on the nightlife scene, have become almost completely extinct. The handsome ones aren't charming, the charming ones aren't handsome and many of the rich ones are now poor.

There seemed to be a time during the most recent Wall Street bubble when natural selection and free market capitalism had achieved a perfect equilibrium. Men arrived in New York, equipped with degrees in finance or perhaps just a family friend's business card, to get rich. They came with different ranks—hedgies, traders, analysts, consultants—and together formed the infantry of a hungry Gordon Gekko–like army. As necessary as the Soho House membership or the weekend share in the Hamptons (south of the highway, thank you very much!) was a cute piece of arm candy. These were to be had, at the right price, by the dozen, any night of the week at hot spots like Bagatelle, 1Oak and Kiss & Fly. For a long time, the system worked. The more money that was paid, the more men that were laid, the more ladies that were made.

Well, it was good while it lasted. Since August, the Federal Reserve reports, Wall Street has lost 9,000 jobs, or about 5 percent of total employment. And it will only get worse. According to the report, "The city's finance sector stands on the verge of a significant multiyear downturn in employment and in real earnings." Up to 78,000 more jobs will likely be lost and many of those who remain employed will see their salaries slashed as bonuses disappear. What does this mean for Sophie? She adjusts her sweater downward and frowns. "There's much more competition," she says, anxiously eyeing the door.

With a supply of supple honeys outstripping demand, men are now choosier and even more fickle than usual. Ted Morgan, co-author of How to Marry a Multi-Millionaire: The Ultimate Guide to High Net Worth Dating, says, "There is an increased sense of desperation among women about dating, and men can sense this." Beggars, they figure, can't be choosers. Stacey Lalljee, a raven-haired IT engineer at AT&T, is single but shouldn't be. At any other time, in fact, she wouldn't be. The 31-year-old, who boasts of dating a well-known reality star and a slew of high-net-worth individuals, is accustomed to dinners at Ono and Markt, Nicolas Feuillatte champagne by the jeroboam and—if indeed she did end the night in her own home—being chauffeured there in a hired Town Car. But, she says, those Sex and the City salad days are over. She complains, "It sucks to be a single girl right now"—in large part because strapped Wall Street guys are spending less on dates. A typical night out during these troubled times may still be at Buddakan, but it will just as likely be for wine at the bar rather than a table laden with $44 Peking duck. According to one 29-year-old trader who lives in Murray Hill, "We don't have time or money to spend hundreds of dollars on a girl. If it's a drink and it doesn't go anywhere, well, at least I'm cutting back."

Today, women drinking paid-for saketinis are among the lucky few. Staceys and Sophies all over the city—women who six months ago subsisted on a steady diet of underwritten dinners followed by a night of bottle service at Marquee or Rose Bar—are waiting for their Sidekicks to vibrate. Sophie is broken up about a recently pink-slipped relationship with a Lehman brother. "I was dating this guy for a couple of weeks," she says, "and all of a sudden he just stopped calling me. For weeks, I waited. Finally he called. He had lost his job and was too ashamed to tell me."

And being unemployed is not hot. Real estate broker Sammy, a 37-year-old "single girl in the dating scene" (who would rather keep her real name private so that her boss doesn't know she's a gold digger), wrinkles her nose in disgust. "Will I knowingly date somebody who is in the sh--ter right now? Probably not." Sophie agrees, "I would never go out with someone who came up to me and said, 'I don't have a job.' " Emilaya shakes her head. "No, no, no." Even the non-English speaker shakes her head no. It's universal: No banking job, no service.

Back at Bagatelle, three young beautiful Turks smoke Camels outside in the cold. One is blonde, one is brunette and one is shivering in a T-shirt that reads "I Heart NY." Two appear to be models, or at least "models." (The other works in finance.) "When we go out there are usually four guys buying us drinks. Now there is only one," sighs the petite 24-year-old brunette. "Guys just aren't going out as much. Plus, men aren't buying bottle service so there are no tables to invite women back to." The other two nod ruefully.

But all downturns have their upsides. Just as the Wall Street apocalypse has been a boon to short sellers—those who bet against the stock market—so too has the scarcity of marketable men been a boon to, well, men. In some ways, the slowdown has created space for true love to flourish. Win Hornig, 25, a former analyst for the now defunct Bear Stearns who pens the blog Banker Gone Broke, isn't on the dating scene anymore. He met his girlfriend, a former Lehman Brothers analyst, through a mutual friend over a dinner at Country last month, when he still had a job but the market was cooling off. "If the market was busy, we would have never met. We both would have been at the office instead." Win's a winner, but today even losers can score. According to Ted, "You used to hear women say, 'I'd never date anyone who makes less than $1 million.' You don't hear that anymore. The number is getting lower and lower and lower." Stacey says now when she goes out on dates she asks herself, "Does this person have EP—earning potential? Even if he's a janitor, I'd give him a chance." But Stacey would do well to learn from the market. Trading in futures is risky business.

November 21

周四晚@后海东岸酒吧

周四晚和一个朋友在东岸酒吧小坐, 08年第一来后海的酒吧, 全年第二次来酒吧(pub除外)
我的朋友吸着烟(Daviddoff), 很惬意, 很陶醉...
我和朋友并排坐, 透过落地玻璃窗, 正视窗外的夜景---后海还是那个多姿多彩的后海, 但物是人非了吧, 我都不记得上次来这里是什么时候了,那个时候应该还是和她在一起呢...只不过如今我的眼里看世间的万物已经很悲凉, 要么已经萧条和衰落, 要么就在即将走向没落的前夕...Crisis everywhere... 
我仅要了杯Gin Tonic(高尿酸+脂肪肝的人怎么能饮酒呢?!且最近查酒很厉害啊,同志们注意了) 把脚搭在窗台上, 一度一言不发, 漠不关心酒吧里的Jazz, 身心在这个时间段得到彻底的放松...发现最自我的时候要么就是在交易台上喋喋不休的工作, 要么就是在生活中的一言不发的驾驶或者静坐...
窗下酒吧外的几个80/90后的小朋友互相依偎在一起抱团取暖,亲吻...我只是很疑惑他们的性别, 按说都有彩妆应该是女孩但清一色的中性打扮...这年头怎么了, 我真想抽丫的, 难道"生男生女都一样"现如今就是如此诠释?!
生活中的沉思越来越多, 人总是会变老的...(要么我已经变老了,要么我就在变老的前夕)
不禁让我想到了最喜欢的美剧Boston Legal每集结尾的情景: Alan and Denny 坐在露天阳台上, 吸着雪茄, 眼望夜色中的downtown, 谈论着昨天/今天/明天(靠,其实topic就是女人和政治,lawyer就是如此的"现实")...那也是他们最惬意最自我的时刻吧
Life sucks but Life should go on...
November 20

【日美文化,有差异】(今日信邦)

【日美文化,有差异】

雷曼兄弟出事,日本部分由日本野村证券收购。如何管理雷曼日本的1300名员工,成为日本观察家的热点。收购案令人想起十年前美林收购日本山一证券的铩羽事件---当年,美林有4000员工可选择,只雇用2000人,但把山一人调教为美林人的方案失败,强行扭转日本消费者的行为亦告失败,4年赔了6亿美元。

奥尼尔上台,新官上任三把火,决定从日本撤退,成为美日文化差异的鲜明个案。时至08年,奥尼尔领了黄金降落伞退位,美林亦并入摩根大通,一切烟消云散,世事便是如此。

连当年号称在日本成功的GE,亦要出售消费金融投资Lake,加上雷曼兄弟申请破产,美国模式不合日本市场的理论,看来有支持。但如今反其道而行,由日本野村将雷曼人洗脑,由保守的管理层监管前线的雷曼人,首先薪水差距的13,主管薪水低于属下,是永远的心结,如何评估业绩,年底大分红,野村人首先做不来,人之常也。注重尊卑、讲究忠诚度、能忍得上司,是日本千年不变的模式。在雷曼的日本雇员早已习惯即时计、随时转工、奖金第一的文化。

今日风大雨大,当然有约就签,但那些对冲基金部、并购部的好手,又可以留得多久,就看这次风暴要烧多久。所以这次日本反购美国公司只是一件高危项目,拭目以待。

November 18

今日信邦的一些消息

高盛7高层不拿资金,华尔街觉悟】

美国投资银行高盛(GoldmanSachs)CEO布兰克费恩(LloydBlankfein)带头,联同6名高层放弃收取2008年的年终资金。在全球经济前景欠佳下,预计会有更多金融机构的高层仿效。
美国纽约首席检察官科莫(AndrewCuomo)评论这是朝正确方向踏出重要一步。科莫周日(16)发出声明,指高盛高层放弃收取资金,是恰当及精明的,希望有助令华尔街觉悟前非,官方强烈鼓励其它银行高层跟随高盛的步伐。
高盛发言人LucasvanPraag公布,CEO布兰克费恩、联席营运总裁科恩及温克尔里德等7人,同日向董事局薪酬委员会提出,今年不收取年底资金,并已获得委员会同意。上述高层人士今年只收取基本薪金60万美元。Praag表示,他们(高层)相信这样做是对的。我们不能忽略我们是行内一分子的事实,与目前经济困局有直接关系。
回顾去年,即使发生次按风暴及信贷紧缩危机,高盛还站稳阵脚,07年盈利创纪录达116亿美元,布兰克费恩获发资金6,850万美元,可谓十分和味。高盛股价昨一度跌逾4%,报62.36美元。
全球金融危机由美国输出,华尔街一众获取巨额薪酬资金的高层自然成为众矢之的,但雷曼兄弟等前高层成员,却将成千上万资金袋袋平安,惹来外界强烈不满。
金融海啸后,高盛与摩根士丹利成为国内仅存两间主要投资银行,受美国FED规管。上月尾纽约州法律部门警告包括高盛等9大银行,指它们若用政府注资来分发资金,可能干犯欺诈性财产转让罪名。CNNMoney.com引述评论认为,源于80年代的薪酬系统已过时,并鼓励高层进行过度投机炒作活动。美国高管薪酬中心副主席兼法律顾问TimBartl展望未来,指金融机构可能会以较高薪金、较大份额限制性股票或股权(restricedstockoroptions),取代向高层支付大额资金。

【投行一哥,转型保命】

高盛1869年由德国犹太移民马库斯戈德曼(MarcusGoldman)创立,初时公司以其名字命名,至1896年其女婿塞缪尔萨克斯(SamuelSachs)加入,易名为高盛(GoldmanSachs),同年加入纽约证券交易所,主要为企业发行商业票据,是行业先驱。

1930年资深合伙人温伯格(SidneyWeinberg)将高盛由交易公司转型为投资银行。1970年宾州中央铁路公司倒闭,其逾8,000万美元未偿还商业票据大部分由高盛发行,此事之后任何机构发行商业票据,均须由评级机构进行信贷评级。

90年在鲁宾(RobertRubin)及弗里德曼(StephenFriedman)领导下,加强全球化及并购的业务,公司极速发展,赚钱能力及声誉超着,渐成为投资银行一哥,99年上市,当年高盛集团主席及CEO,正是美国现任财长鲍尔森。高盛去年创下116亿美元净收益神话,每位高层获分丰厚资金,怎料次按风暴爆发加上雷曼兄弟倒闭,令高盛今年业绩和股价大幅下泻,今年股价已累跌69%,为了生存,今年921日转型为银行,并先后获股神巴菲特及美国政府注资。

October 16

"De-Time"

谁说资产价格的涨跌与社会消费没有线性关系呢?
我已经半年的时间在抑制自己的消费品开支了...

这是个尚未见底的下降周期...风暴来得过猛
去杠杆化(De-leveraging)...
经济减速(De-celeration)...
市场估值受到压制(De-rating)...

It's a downtrend cycle and we like the words with "De-"...

It's time to SAVE in ur account!

October 12

富士山下

10月12日,2008赛季F1大奖赛来到富士山脚下进入日本站的争夺。历时1小时30分21秒892,从第4位起步的阿隆索继新加坡站之后连续第二站登顶获得分站冠军。库比卡落后5.2秒冲线获得第2,莱科宁为法拉利带回第3。这也是芬兰冰人继四站颗粒无收之后首次夺得积分并登上领奖台。皮奎特、特鲁利、伯尔戴斯、维特尔和马萨分居4至8位。基米的领奖台和科瓦莱宁的退出帮助法拉利在车队积分榜上积141分反超迈凯轮6分重回榜首。"黑鬼"尽管没有拿到积分,仍然领先马萨6分领跑车手积分榜。这厮简直就是疯子, 在第一个弯角被Kimi超过但仍死走内线, 害得后者痛失领先大局; 此后又与Massa激烈碰撞, 估计丫瞬间肾上腺激素当时分泌的太快 出现非理性的行为...我觉得判他出局都不为过...一个人搅屎, 害得众车手惊慌失措, 13部赛车在同一个弯角冲出赛道...今年丫最后两站如果输掉6分没夺冠也算是苍天有眼...总之 这是在F1车手中让我厌恶许久的"Hei Gui" 好了, 不生气了, 在相册放几个JPN MM在车场的照片 分享一下, 今年还没去日本旅游呢...

October 10

FYI:【高盛主导财政部,公平受质疑】

摘自今日东方信邦 可以从侧面了解高盛

高级行政人员让位给工作表现突出的新进,是如今已变成商业银行的高盛的企业文化;让位意味未届退休之龄,那么,他们又被安插到哪里?公司内部提升当然是办法之一,但高层容纳不了多少人,那些一方面要提拔新人一方面无位可退者,最佳的出路,以高盛的传统,是进入政府、国际性组织任职,眼前的例子有前助理国务卿(失意于官场入高盛再从高盛转职)、现任世界银行总裁佐立克(Bob Zoellick;他全力支持林毅夫出任该行高级副总裁兼首席经济学家)和美国财政部部长鲍尔森。其它出任这类高职的高盛旧伙记数不在少,为什么政府和半官方机构虚位以待高盛的干员?这是高盛招聘员工的条件十分严格,一旦成为雇员又给予最完善全面的在职培训,令高盛的职员、特别是那些爬至高位的,俱精明强干;这些被业界称为亿万身家童子军(Billionaire Boyscouts)的高盛高层,大都腰缠亿万,不必再为稻粱谋,入非牟利的官方或半官方机构,一展长才,为人民服务,正是他们的人生目的。

称高盛决策层为亿万身家童子军,意味他们赚取干净的钱,虽然高盛的企业精神是长期贪婪(Longterm Greedy,这完全符合犹太哲学),但不赚非法或走法律漏洞的钱!换句话说,高盛员工在商业道德上皆无问题,这亦是他们很易融入官方和半官方机构的原因。

鲍尔森(1946-)70年获哈佛企管硕士后当助理国防部长的助手,稍后调任内政部长助理,这位部长,便是后来因水门丑闻下狱的艾力曼(J.Ehrlichman);顶头上司犯官非,鲍尔森亦呆不下去,他利用在职时打通的人际关系,74年辞官进入高盛,82年升为合伙人、90年任投资银行部主管、94年任首席营运员、98年爬上联合主席高位,翌年兼任CEO,另一位联合主席柯辛尼(J.Corzine)大权旁落,稍后辞职参选当上参议员,现在是新泽西州州长;柯辛尼的前任弗利曼,离开高盛进入白宫,先任总统经济政策助理后当国家经济顾问委员会主席;而弗利曼的前任鲁宾,应克林顿总统的征召先任国家经济顾问委员会主席后掌财政部(现任花旗银行临时主席)

当鲍尔森06年出掌财政部时,有论者指高盛占领布什总统的行政部门,有的则称冒险先生华盛顿走马上任,这2项观察皆甚中肯。除了鲍尔森,在政府任高职的高盛旧人还有白宫幕僚长保尔顿(J.Bolton)和期货交易监理专员鲁平(J.Reuben)……。而他有冒险先生(Mr.Risk)的绰号,皆因他任内令Proprietory Trade发扬光大,此前投资银行很少以本身的资金入市豪赌的;这种拥抱风险投资(Risk Embracing Investing),令高盛在过去的超大牛市中斩获极丰;鲍尔森进入白宫时据报身家值7亿美元。受薪阶级凭薪津花红而累积约5十亿港元财富,堪称打工皇帝!

虽说高盛高层向来奉公守法、秉公办事,但高盛人以对公司绝对忠诚闻名华尔街。这种文化背景,令人对在鲍尔森手里解决了高盛3大对手是否公平,议论纷纷。贝尔斯登3月间被摩根大通吞并、9月雷曼兄弟人间蒸发继而美林归于美银旗下,这些事件都有财政部幕后操盘的影子;3间公司与摩根士丹利和高盛合称华尔街5大行,它们向来是高盛的强劲对手,如今其中3家在鲍尔森手上消失,难免招来行家的风言风语!

和高盛在社会上保持低调的传统同调,鲍尔森亦谢绝社交活动,从不参加社交酬酢,一家人住在伊利诺州巴灵顿镇一个5公顷的动物农庄(饲养十余种动物)99年当上高盛CEO,才搬往曼哈顿。鲍尔森的业余兴趣是环保和协助有需要的政府创设国家公园(包括云南);他对亚洲特别是保护中国自然环境有浓厚兴趣。

看鲍尔森的出身,他于去周一调今年35岁的印度裔美籍财技专家卡殊嘉利(NeelKashKari)出任财政部新设部门金融稳定办公室(OFS)主任,负责救市方案7000亿美元的运用,便不出奇。卡殊嘉利是真正的火箭科学家,获伊利诺州大学太空科学工程学位后加入一家专做太空总署生意的公司,其后入华尔顿商学院,02年得企管硕士后入高盛,才3年便升至旧金山公司副主席(负责IT业投资银行服务)06年鲍尔森出掌财政部,他带进政府的高盛人便是此公,其职位为财长高级顾问,是7000亿救市方案的主要起草人及向国会议员晓以大义劝服他们投赞成票的官方说客之一。

新职使卡殊嘉利炙手可热,因为未来决定购进什么负资产以至价格如何厘定,他有最后话事权。107《纽约时报》报道,由于购买问题公司的问题资产是前所未有的工作,卡殊嘉利因此计划把整项计划外判;而外判公司谁属,美东10日公布。

财政部的要员俱属高盛旧人,引起华尔街(虽然威势大减唯发言权仍在)也许出于吃不到葡萄心理诱发的冷嘲热讽;业界中人担心高盛影响力太大会令财政部做出对高盛特别有利的买卖,自是情理中事。

 
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